The war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, has left the European Union and much of the West on the wrong side of history. This conflict, deeply rooted in the complex geopolitics of Russia, Ukraine, and the broader Western alliance, was—at least from Russia’s vantage point—never merely about territorial disputes or nationalistic ambition. It was instead about NATO expansion and the ongoing subjugation of Russian populations in the Donbas by Kiev in the wake of the Maidan Revolution in 2014. The response to these legitimate Russian concerns by the US and Europe has been short-sighted and historically misguided, and owed to a substantial failure in the West’s security policy design and diplomatic foresight.
Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO would have represented a significant shift in the balance of power on Russia’s doorstep. Rather than an imperial ambition, as often portrayed by the West, this was a matter of national survival for Russia. Despite Russia's repeated warnings, Western policymakers, particularly in the US and the EU, dismissed these concerns, choosing to expand NATO right up to Russia’s borders.
Maidan and the Neglect of Russia’s National Security Interests
The situation took a decisive turn after the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine, which was largely instigated by the United States. The revolution overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych, who had been seen as pro-Russian, and installed the anti-Russian Petro Poroshenko as the new president. This shift, backed by Washington and much of the EU, sowed deeper divisions within Ukraine, particularly in the Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions.
Instead of seeking peace and reconciliation and preparing Ukraine as a neutral bridge for political exchange between Russia and Europe, the West pushed Ukraine into an arms race that ultimately escalated the conflict. [for the rise in Ukraine's defense budget from 2013 until before the outbreak of the war see https://www.edwinseditorial.com/2022/02/russian-statesmanship-against-ukraine.html]. Feeling its hand forced, Russia moved toward the annexation of Crimea in 2014. From Russia’s perspective, this move was a necessary and strategic response to the destabilization of Ukraine and the growing military presence of NATO forces near its borders. Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, held immense strategic significance. The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO posed a direct threat to Russia’s access to the Black Sea, making the annexation of Crimea an inevitable step in Russia’s security strategy.
As the Maidan Revolution unfolded, Russian-speaking minorities in these regions felt increasingly marginalized by the new Kiev government. Poroshenko’s policies, including restrictive language laws and the suppression of Russian cultural identity, led to a violent backlash that escalated into a full-blown civil conflict, with Russia stepping in to protect its ethnic kin and safeguard its strategic interests.
To quell the conflict and to seek a peaceful resolution, the Minsk agreements were established in 2014 and 2015 . These agreements called for a ceasefire, decentralization of power to the eastern regions, and the protection of minority rights. However, the West, particularly the United States, France, and Germany consistently undermined these agreements by funneling military aid into Ukraine, effectively transforming the country into a NATO proxy. The militarization of Ukraine, with the tacit support of Washington and Brussels, should prepare the country for an eventual confrontation with Russia.
The misinterpretation of Russia’s actions as purely imperialistic is one of the most glaring mistakes made by Western leaders. Moscow’s repeated claims about NATO expansion as a ˃red line˂ were not mere rhetoric. For years, Russia warned that the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO would lead to severe consequences. Yet these warnings were ignored, and the expansionist policies of the West continued unabated.
The Biden Administration’s Role in Escalation
As the conflict intensified in 2022, the role of the Biden administration became increasingly central. The Biden White House, influenced by neoconservative ideologues, rejected proposals for peace and explicitly instructed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—elected in 2019—to continue the war and reject neutrality with Russia. This hardline stance pushed Ukraine further into the conflict, with the United States actively supplying weapons, intelligence, and military assistance.
Despite Russia’s repeated calls for negotiations, the Biden administration, supported by European leaders, refused to consider diplomatic solutions, ensuring the war's continuation with Ukraine caught in the middle as a proxy in a broader geopolitical struggle.
In essence, the negation of Russia’s security interests set the stage for the conflict we have witnessed for the past three years.
A Call for Negotiation and a Peaceful Resolution
The war in Ukraine has been devastating for all parties involved, with countless lives lost, entire regions of the country devastated, and immense economic damage all across Europe. Yet, despite this, the EU and its member states continue to push for a military solution. The misconception that Russia is the sole aggressor has dominated European political discourse, ignoring the broader historical and strategic context.
However, a closer examination reveals that Russia’s military operation could even be justified under international law, particularly referencing Article 51 of the UN-Charter, which allows for self-defense in the face of armed attack. In this sense, Russia was acting to protect its nationals in the Donbass region and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, which was perceived as an existential threat.
A peaceful resolution will require direct negotiations between the United States and Russia—ideally between the Trump administration and Putin—without European interference. France, Germany, and the UK risk prolonging the conflict by insisting on continued military engagement. A resolution that respects Russia’s security concerns while maintaining a clipped Ukraine’s sovereignty is the only viable path forward.
A Lost War—What Now? The Way Forward
Although it was clear to unbiased observers from the outset that Ukraine could not win a military struggle against Russia, European political elites insisted otherwise. Now, the responsibility falls upon President Trump—who, unlike the European Commission, acknowledges the need for accommodating legitimate security interests of other nations—to negotiate peace directly with President Putin.
Ukraine's leadership, under Zelenskyy, has demonstrated an unwillingness to pursue diplomacy, making it imperative that external actors, particularly the United States, step in to broker a ceasefire. European leaders, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron, continue to justify prolonging the war with baseless claims of a potential Russian offensive against Central and Western Europe.
The reality is that Russia has won this war; Ukraine has lost roughly a quarter of its territory, and only a swift ceasefire and peace agreement can prevent further loss of life and destruction. The notion that Russia intends to invade the Baltics or Western Europe is a fabrication promoted by warmongers and arms manufacturers who benefit from continued conflict.
For three decades since the end of the Cold War, Russia has adhered to agreements while the West has repeatedly broken its promises, from NATO expansion to the Minsk Accords and the INF Treaty. A peace agreement signed by the relevant parties should suffice to maintain stability without the need for external peacekeeping forces. It can be expected that at least Russia will abide by the agreement.
Europe must now acknowledge its policy failures and cease obstructing efforts to end the war. Once Ukraine is pacified, Europe can find its lost relevance in international affairs by contributing to Ukraine’s reconstruction and promoting a new security framework that avoids antagonistic policies and unnecessary military escalation while bringing Russia back into the Western orbit.
With Trump poised to correct the mistakes of his predecessor, the world has a renewed chance at peace. If the West learns from past miscalculations, a stable and cooperative security order could emerge—one that was envisioned in the early 1990s before being derailed by unilateral and imperial hubris in Washington and Brussels.
